Civil War in Ukraine?

[benCA]

I would hate to see Ukraine break up. but one thing i really don't want to see is Poland getting any land from Ukraine. if they are going to split, i say that the whole country should just join russia instead of splliting. but before any spliting, they should try getting different president.

[Danger-boy]

Hello, Reza,

I don't see how the Irish can compare to Russians.
But I think an even worse fate was shared by many Western great people, writers and scientists in Medieval Europe, civil rights activists in the U.S., etc than the fate of their Russian counterparts.

But despite what you call "fitful intrigue" and "zero-sum machinations," the Russians were able to achieve results under such conditions just as well.

[Danger-boy]

benCA,

What I can't understand is why someone in the 1920s picked up a pen marked off a boundry that cut through Russian land and said that part of this land is now Ukraine. These boundaries never existed before but were invented.

Most of this territory was called Little Russia for centuries. The Galician population also had many people who called themselves Russians even at the beginning of the 20th century. But Galicia was always separate from the rest of Little and Great Russia. It was under Polish and Austrian rule for 800 years, and many of its people have adopted their conquerors' culture, religion and traditions. The Czechs and Slovaks are more similar to each other than Galicians and central Ukrainians (Kiev, Poltava).
Also, the Carpathian Rusyns keep their culture and language away from Galician influence and want to separate from Ukraine.
We know that Russians in the Crimea and Donbass want to split from UKraine also. Crimea was able to achieve a semi-autonomous status.

If violence flares in the Ukraine, there will be atrocities far worse than in ex-Yugoslavia, more like that in Nagorno-Karabakh. And, of course, Russian peacekeepers will step in, covering most of Ukraine, while NATO peacekeepers will arrive from Poland and cover mostly the western part of Ukraine. The peacekeepers will have to keep Ukrainians from killing each other.
After a while, there will be referendums, and boundaries will be changed.

There is also a peaceful way to solve these national issues.

[Octavio]

"Most of this territory was called Little Russia for centuries"

But it's not called that now, and there's no going back. With your Russian this and Russian that, you sound like the German nationalists of the 1930s.

"If violence flares in the Ukraine, there will be atrocities far worse than in ex-Yugoslavia."

Indeed. And I don't see the "peacekeepers" accommodating each other so smoothly as you predict.

As for living together in spite of cultural and linguistic differences, well look at Belgium. The Walloons and the Flemings can be profoundly at odds, yet Belgium holds together. Ukraine also can hold together.

Octavio

[benCA]

whatever the reasons,
it doesn't look good. but i have a feeling that its only heading for the worst.

[Danger-boy]

Octavio,
Who do you think you are to say there's no way of going back? These lands in what is now called Ukraine were always called Russia (Little Russia, Red Russia, Russiae Minoris, South Russia) before 1917. It's people insisted on being called Russians, not Ukrainians, in most cases. In other cases, they preferred Peasant (Krestyane, Christians) to anything else. Many things were changed, at least on the outside, with the establishment of the Soviet republic of Ukraine by the Soviets, who gave the region a border that never existed before.

As for the peacekeepers, that's just a theory. I don't think it's likely to happen. However, it's more likely for Ukraine to fall apart.

Like Belgium, you say. You wish. Belgium stood the test of time for centuries. The Ukraine became a state only a few years ago.
Ukraine is more like Yugoslavia (and a similar future awaits it), and Russia is not like the 1930s Germany. But there are no like situations to which you could easily compare this.

[Jennacarana]

I've only had time to skim this thread, and not read it in detail, but I'm very interested in continueing this discussion as I recently wrote a term paper on this very subject. I also spent a month studying in Kyiv, and my interest is sparked.

Many important points have been made, but a few things have I believe been overlooked.

Firstly, its not just "ethnic Ukrainians" and "ethnic Russians" in Ukraine. There's this middle group of Russian-speaking Ukrainians who generally do not have a well-developed sense of national identity at all, and in surveys sometimes described their nationality as "Soviet" or "citizen of the world" or even regional ("Odessite", etc). According to studies, Russian-speaking Ukrainians are generally more "Russian" in their outlook on Ukraine's foreign policy than they are "Ukrainian". THey are simultaneously pulled in both directions. Thus while there is a great deal of polarization on the one hand between north-west and south-east Ukraine, there is this grey area in between which I think acts as a sort of buffer: conflict potential is greatest when people have a strong sense of national identity.

The two places in Ukraine from which violence or tension would arise would be the Crimea and Galicia, not insignificantly the two most recent (significant) additions to Ukrainian territory (Galicia in1939 and Crimea in 1954) Crimea of course is majority ethnic Russian and has already tried to secede. Galicia is the heart of nationalism and the Ukrainian Catholic/Uniate church. Any conflict arising in Ukraine would I don't doubt involve action on the part of both of these regions.

I don't think its at all likely that Ukraine will "Balkanize", at least not for long. A divided Ukraine would be a non-existant Ukraine: neither Eastern nor Western Ukraine could survive independently; the East would be sucked into Russia and the West would simply not have the industrial resources (or world recognition) to survive. If there ever is a war in Ukraine, its final outcome would be all or nothing: either Ukraine is independent as it is now or it would be a part of Russia.

Also, although there are extremists on both sides its important to remember that Russians and Ukrainians do share a lot of heritage: Kievan-Rus, after, is Russia's culture hearth, the languages are distinct but very similar, and the Uniate church, while loyal to Rome, does its services in the Byzantine rite (i.e., the actual litergy is virtually identical to the Orthodox one). These factors I believe would temper any conflict that would break out; blood would be shed but not like in the Balkans or Nagorno-Karabagh. In many parts of Ukraine (particularly in East-Central and EAst) there's been a lot of intermarriage....

Anyhow, I'll maybe post more on this later. Now I have to go to sleep....

Jennacarana