Russian Chinese alliance

[ILay]

Dear Liev_Ramos

first

let me quote you

both have weak economies

and let me quote you once again

but China's population real capacity of his purchasing power is smaller than the american capacity, Isn't it?.

By what I can see from your messages your definition of weak/strong economy, I may draw a conclusion that

Switzerland's economy is by far stronger than the American one. And the strongest world economies are Lichtenstein, Andorra and Bahrein.

second

Please provide me with your definition of what the strong econmy is.

Or I will follow your logics and declare USA a fascist state (well, the last racial segregation law was declared void Feb-2001 in Arisona).

Anyhow, if US sources are of any value for you, please note that McKinsey, Arthur Andersen, PWC etc. are considering Chinese economy strong.

third

So what?
Check the Russian debts structure and answer my question. So what?

fourth

what is the thesis you are willing to prove with your sentence?

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frankly speaking, I can not get your point ( no offence, ok?).
Chinese GDP is formidable but the econmy is weak?
The economy growth is world fastest but without development?
USA=EU=NATO?

Now I'm really interested. I would be extremely impressed if you could back your message with facts and data. In deed.

[ILay]

Jennacarana

I do 100% agree with you.

Intensive trade does not always create a favourable environment for the political allience of any kind.

There are way too many discrepacies between Russia and China. Personally, I consider China to be the major threat (followed by Islamic extremist regimes) for Russia in the 21 century.

There are IMHO much more chanses for Russian - CIS, or Russian - European, or Russian - US allience than for the Russia - China pact. Well, and both sides seem to understand it...

[Liev_Ramos]

Hi, Ilay
Firstable this seems is going to be a good and fruitful discussion, thanks for your atention and points, are extremely valious.

Without intention to be rude, I do not know the diference between economic trade and political alliance. So, let us move on.
I think we are coming to a standstill, we are focusing our discussion in concepts, but also is true that we could not continue without clear it up.
I going to try to detail as much as I can my conception about weak & strong economy. I considerer that a country has a weak economy when: it depends a lot from foreign investment, when that country has a structural problem in its balance of payments, because to solve that problem participation of IMF becomes fundamental. A weak economy is that one that can not offer development with growth. As a result of my conception, I really believe that China has a economy that is assuring growth but not development, taking development as the fair distribution of the revenues, I know that China has not an economic capitalistic system but its development can be meassure it by the improvement of the live conditions of its population.
On the contrary, an strong economy is that one that assure all what the weak can not.
Then, I think that, as a result of my conception, Russia and China can not get in, even that Russia is improving its situation.
Of course that my conception is well disposed to allow any sugestion to improve it.
I think that talk about Lichtenstein, Andorra and Bahrein is putting us in subject of proporcionality, I accept that I talked about purchasing power and that was missunderstood what is not the goal.
USA is the larger internal market in the world, that is what I was trying to say, on the other way you are right, those countries aforementioned are by far stronger than the american economy, but in proportion. As an example the volume of internal consumption is by far bigger than the one have it for these countries.

Declare USA as a fascist state woul not be apropiated since
fascist doctrines does not have relation whit USA. Fascist State fundamenal doctrine is: subordination of individuals to the State that is ruled by an elite, where activities of the citizens are organized for the state.
World economy is growing that is undeniable, but there is not world development as a joint, the Gini index of all the countries in the world will tell you that.
When I mentioned USA, EU or NATO I was making reference to this, World Bank and IMF are organisms basically dominated by the industrialized countries and there is not way to deny that. Russia is having structurals problem, you knoe that to solve that kind of problem you need help form IMF, if Russia shows some intention to reach an agreement no matter what kind, if such one is not perceived in main IMF contributors countries, the policy of this organism to send economical help to Russia is going to be implicitly conditioned.

Let me know what you think

V V

[cepguu]

A few points to consider:

1) In the short run (next two / four years), a false and insincere appearance of solidarity between China and Russia may very well increase, rather than decrease. The sole intent of such a spectacle from both parties would be to gain greater attention and respect from the U.S., and eventually at the expense of one another.

Such a drama could very well resemble two no longer very beautiful former noble ladies, who harbor only contempt and suspicion for one another, -- one of them conniving and crafty, the other arrogant but inept, -- forming a sham alliance of radical feminist lesbianism, only in order to better win the love of that obese cowboy at the other continent, who spend so much time nowadays spacing out in his megamalls or in front of his 24 inch TV, that he has quite fogotten how to play the classical romantic games.

2) Supposing that yellow hordes of sneaker salesmen from Asia would form an unholy alliance with all the bomb waving "ALLAH AUKHBAR" Islamic warriors in an anti-Christ crusade against the white Christian brother nations of the world, what rueful ignorance and chauvinistic paranoia!! Even a collective manifesto between John Birch Society and White Aryan Brotherhood could not have come up with a scenario more fantastic and narcissistic.

3) The eventual crushing-down of the Chinese Empire (an outcome possibly much more imminent than many would suppose, say five to six years?) by forces from within or without, might result in the final convergence in the historical destinies of two peoples who, despite their different appearances, are remarkably alike in temperament and mindset -- the Chinese, and the Jews, meaning:

A. the Chinese yellow hordes will finally be accorded a hisotrical opportunity to do, with respect to the entire world, what a tiny Jewish sect once did to the Holy Roman Empire, -- by losing and by being vanquished, they would win the next "ticychileniem" (one thousand years);

B. if one looks at history just a little bit, it will not be difficult to discover that the ONLY way the Chinese Empire ever succeeded in vanquishing (not merely subjugating) alien cultures, was by subjugating itself entirely towards the latter (consider the Mongols and Manchus);

C. we imagine this world of 2015, 500,000 shopping malls in the American style and 20,000 disneylands will have been constructed in the whole world, where not just all the Christmas lights and sneakers, but ALL of the toilet seats and Big Mac styrophone boxes, not to mention all of the ladies's shoes and dresses and cosmetics, will be manufactured in the conquered China; and

D. 5,000 of those disneyland amusement parks will be constructed in none other then the once pristine Russian Far East, featuring politically correct tigers and love excursions on giant luxury boasts all around Lake Baikal, manned by Chinese slave laborers, managed by Koreans and Japanese, patronized by Americans and Germans, and do not forget that maximum employment opportunites would be provided to locals Russian girls shuffling cards in casinos and dancing nude in all-night erotica shows.

Zhits i posmotrits (live and see).

[Jennacarana]

A highly entertaining post, cepguu....
Now:

"false and insincere appearance of solidarity between China and Russia may very well increase, rather than decrease"

Agreed. However, given the temperments of both these nations and the growing anti-Western trends in both, I doubt that the goal will be so much to win the US over, but rather more of a saber-rattling of the sort designed to a) win attention, b) be taken seriously, and c) buy time as both attempt (China successfully, and Russia, more likely unsuccessfully) to build up their strength, economically and militarily. China, for the purpose of fufulling their role as the Middle Kingdom, the Center of the Universe , and Russia simply to - well, rebuild.

"Supposing that yellow hordes of sneaker salesmen from Asia would form an unholy alliance with all the bomb waving "ALLAH AUKHBAR" Islamic warriors in an anti-Christ crusade against the white Christian brother nations of the world, what rueful ignorance and chauvinistic paranoia"

As stated, I was not the one to come up with this (Samuel P. Huntington, in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order), and furthermore, there is quite a bit of evidence for it. First of all - geography. Both the Islamic world (Pakistan) and China have had major confrontations with the region that lies between them - India. The presence of a large Muslim minority in India is also a factor. Regardless, it is simply good strategic sense for China and Pakistan (and possibly Iran) to cooperate in any and all "security" issues regarding the subcontinent. Esp. since all parties involved are nuclear powers. India is rapidly rising in economic influence, China is already economically powerful,and the economic significance of the Middle East is obvious. So we have three major economic powers, in a geographically contiguous location, who have previously had many violent confrontations; by any standards conflict is likely, and in any such conflict two would naturally gang up against the third. There are already ecnomic and military understandings b/w China and Pakistan (and maybe Iran) in the form of trade and arms sales. Addionally, both China and the Islamic world have a vested interest in weakening the influence of the West in their respective spheres.

Granted, any such alliance would be a cautious one, and one formed only on the basis of having a mutual enemy. Perhaps a more apt term would be not alliance but an "understanding" .The cultural differences b/w China and the MIddle East are of course drastic, and once both have established hegemony in their regions any such understanding would eventually fall apart. It is not an unreasonable possibility.

"The eventual crushing-down of the Chinese Empire..."

You certainly seem quite the pessimist in the case of China. While the People's Republic is eaten away more and more each day, there does appear to be growing in its place a highly nationalistic Chinese entity. China has, of course, always thought of itself as the Middle Kingdom. Of course, there is some possibility that China could go the route of the USSR, it is more likely that China's transition from "communism" will be much more gradual, enough so that there is not the catastrophic disintegration that happened in Eurasia 10 years ago, but rather a strongly united state that cannot even put a date to the time when their governemnt changed (into what? I don't know). There certainly does not seem to be any indication that China is about to crash. It has a strong, viable economy, perhaps the largest int he world, and is rapidly stregthening its ties to the rest of the Asian world; by all indications will in the next decade or so have at least some semblance of hegemony over the region.

Finally, there is no indication that China is seeking to draw closer to the US in any way other than economically, and vice versa. Economic cooperation does not (as has been repeatedly demonstrated) necessitate any political or military cooperation. China and the US would like to politely exploit each other. Anything more than that, and neither of them will find it acceptable. Surely the spy-plane thing is indication enough of that, as well as all the saber-rattling over Taiwan.

I look forward to your respone

Jennacarana.

[cepguu]

Dear Jenna: Thank you so much for your interesting reply. My trouble is that I am unable to spend that much time on the net due to a rather busy work schedule. Perhaps in about two weeks I will try to pick up the thread from our discussion, if you still would be interested by then.
With best wishes. C

[old-reb]

Hello Cepguu,
Where did that long article come from? From the top of your head? What is in your head? Did you copy it from some other article? It was long and intresting.
Gene