Russian Chinese alliance

[AttilaTheHun]

What does everyone think of a pan Russian-Chinese-Central Asian alliance?

[old-reb]

Hello Attila,
Don't know much about the alliance but if it benifits trade between the two countrys I doubt that Russia could afford all the inexpensive well built goods.
Russia industry would suffer worse than ours has. For years I could buy an USA made clock for $5, suddenly all the usa clocks are gone and have been replaced by $8 made in China clocks. It would be impossible to boycott china goods because there would be nothing left to buy.
Gene

[Jon_Boy]

Dear Attila,

Not too long ago Russia and China were allied together. Just after WWII and after China turned to communism. However, due to major philosophical and cultural differences the fragility formed alliance was broken. Since then Russia historically has been quite weary of its neighbor to the East. In fact, during Soviet times the deployment of Russian soldiers along the China border has been more than any deployment in the Eastern block, even with the threat of NATO in the West. Russia's biggest fear is that China will expand its territories. Also there has been border confusion on certain territories Russia acquired after WWII in the region.

If China expands into Russia, it would disrupt the Trans-Siberian Railroad, the bloodline of Moscow's control in throughout the country. Why do you think China might do that, simple China is over populated and needs to expand in order to keep the promises of communism. Their arable land is overtaxed, and its neighbors don't seem to be using it. With no food the government could quickly fall, as the government was instigated in order to alleviate the inequalities under the previous dynasty. Has China been caught in Russia's territory? yes. When I was living in Khabrovosk there was local news of a small-immigrated Chinese community that was kicked out of Russia. Russia has many more problems to deal with, and a formal economic or political alliance at this time between the two countries is not likely. It would just open the border problem and the military cannot protect its boarders if there is a rush. The fact that relations between the two countries and the U.S. both have declined is valid, but both countries fear each other as well.

John

[Liev_Ramos]

There is not even a chance to achieve any kind of trade or alliance. Trade can not success in those countries, both have weak economies, a treaty to reach and alliance, it is impossible to get, at least Russia needs economical support,
such support is beign acquire through USA, so because its own interest Russia will not try to achieve any of both, neither a Trade or an Alliance. That is a risky bussines

[ILay]

Well, I have to disagree.

I'm not sure your data is correct.

China: even without the overseas China has the largest GDP by PPP. Yes, larger than USA.

If you will consider the GDP growth of 8% average during last dozen of years - this is in no way a week economy. An economy spending 1.7 times more than the US on military purposes in 2000 USD? A weak economy?

Russia:

such support is beign acquire through USA

are you sure?
US support to Russia equaled 2.2 USD billion only. Out of USD 150 billion of national external debt.

Yes, and by the way, do you know that

• almost USD 100 billions of debts were aquired during ONE year? (1990-1991)
• most of these debts are the debts of USSR, not Russia?
• Russia recently refused to take loans worth USD 500 million offered by IMF and World Bank?

Believe me, if I tell you how those crazy debts were made - you will be astonished.

Debts through IMF is not US support.

If I remember correct, the biggest support (in various forms) US gives to CHINA.
Ukraine is next, then Israel. (please correct me if I'm wrong)

Speaking of the weakness of Russian economy.

Realistically, it would be a way too long message if I will start explaining the shape of it.

Consider one fact: 1999 Russia officially bought Intel processors for USD 2.5 millions.
but Intel sold to Russia for more than USD 350 millions.

Till the year 1997, Russia officially bought 50-something Mercedeses S600. But somehow there were more such cars in Moscow than in London and Paris together.

There is a big difference between the country and the state

[Liev_Ramos]

You are right but, there is something missing in your reply:

First
China has a formidable GDP but China's population real capacity of his purchasing power is smaller than the american capacity, Isn't it?.

Second
You should not look the data, because sometimes do it is a way to do not see, what is it beyond?, (China could spend that amount on military purposes but that, does not assure you that they have a strong economy. If you see the level of poverty in China then you will see the shape of the ghost)

Third
When I mentioned risky bussines I was talking about this:
No matter in what manner Russia acquires its debts, what matter is the fact that, USA has a lot of influency in IMF and WB. You can not put this in doubt, because if do it, you will be determining that there is not an implicit economical pressure from USA on Russia's interests with China. If the word USA means nothing, then let me change it for European Union or NATO.

Fourth
Just as a final comment, economical growth does not mean, development.


V V

[Jennacarana]

Hmmmmm.....

You all seem to be assuming that economic trade = political alliance. That's simply not always true, and in fact it very often isn't. For instance, the US and China are huge trading partners, but each considers the other a political (and potentially military) enemy. In fact, in many cases, increased economic trade increases the conflict potential b/w two states, in the form of trade wars, and just general competition. The EEC brought Western European countries together economically, and ultimately politically into the EU because their pre-existing political, strategic, and (in many cases) social aims overlapped with each other and with (relatively) similar cultures. If those pre-existing conditions had not been met, the EU would have remained purely economic, and would not have brought together these countries politically. Russia and China have historical emnities (which is why the brief Cold War alliance was so short), and drastically different cultures and social outloooks. Russia is niether purely Asian nor purely European in her outlook and core (hence the traditional Westernizer vs Slavophile conflict in Russian society). I think the chances of a strong Russia-China alliance are slim to none.