Assessment of Putin

[Dr_Woland]

The UK Prime-Minister Tony Blair is visiting the Kremlin today for Strategic Arms Talks. THE TIMES of London printed this piece (by Moscow correspondent Michael Binyon) about Putin's first months in office as an introduction to the Talks, and I personally think this is a very fair assessment. Bear in mind, The Times is owned by Rupert Murdoch, and traditionally a politically conservative newspaper.

Dr W
_______________________________________

MONDAY NOVEMBER 20 2000

Putin's point of order for Blair

BY MICHAEL BINYON

In the Kremlin tomorrow the Prime Minister will see Russia’s President reaping the benefits of recent reforms

WHEN Tony Blair sweeps into the Kremlin tomorrow morning he will find a slight, determined man who is icily confident that after eight months in office he is beginning to put his stamp on the country.
Vladimir Putin has already begun to dismantle the wilder legacy of the Yeltsin years, imposing authority where there was licence, reform where there was drift and government control where there was freedom of expression. Most Russians are pleased with the result.

A survey published at the weekend showed that 66 per cent approve of what he is doing, and an even higher figure, 68 per cent, trust him. This is an extraordinary turnaround in the Kremlin’s fortunes: in Mr Yeltsin’s final year of office, barely 8 per cent in repeated surveys approved of him.

Whether or not Mr Putin is doing well, however, depends almost entirely on whom one asks. Beneath the general popularity ratings, there is sharp disagreement over a leader who, to most Russians, is still enigmatic, unknown and unpredictable.

Part of his popularity is undoubtedly due to the general sense of stability and order that is slowly returning to Russia. Part is due to the easing of Russia’s chronic economic crisis, alleviated by the rise in global oil prices that has brought a bonanza into the Kremlin’s coffers.

Those most obviously content with the way things appear to be going are the old Soviet generation. Most people aged 45 or more have had great difficulty adjusting to the collapse of communism. They have begun, more or less, to understand the working of the market, to rely less on the Government for directives and answers and to buckle down to a full day’s work, which is increasingly necessary to earn the money to survive.

Bureaucrats, government officials, civil servants and all those who had steady jobs were increasingly bewildered by the stop-go capriciousness of Mr Yeltsin’s reforms, by the sense of drift and by the unscrupulousness of the new rich who merged business with politics to create an oligarchy from which most Russians felt excluded. Mr Putin, they believe, will restore poryadok — order.

They do not see a return to communism — almost every Russian now believes that impossible — but to a style of administration where orders come from the top, authority is unquestioned and the pyramid of government is not challenged by racketeers and corruption. Equally satisfied are the economic liberals — those who have plunged into the new world of business but feel stifled by red tape, bureaucracy and the malign jealousy of rivals and petty officials.

Russia’s market development is now very patchy. Some towns and regions, such as Novgorod and Nizhni Novgorod, are doing well, have encouraged local enterprise and have reformist governors or local administrations that reward enterprise.

Mr Putin has clearly signalled that he wants economic take-off. He has started to tackle the bottlenecks — the rapacious and unfair tax system, the lack of investment regulation and the inefficient state monopolies — and is pushing hard for Western investment and knowhow. He has attempted, rather clumsily, to sack or curb the worst regional governors. He has confronted the most notorious oligarchs, setting up what are intended as the “show trials” of Vladimir Gusinsky and Boris Berezovsky, to warn other powerful magnates not to abuse their dominant economic position.

It is a message that the young and the middle class heartily endorse. Mr Putin also earns high ratings from average Russians humiliated by their country’s loss of empire, influence and confidence. His talk of a strong state and of Russia remaining a great power goes down well.

The more observant have noticed that such popular patriotic posturing has been underpinned by some tough decisions, however — the huge and sensitive issue of military reform, cutting the Armed Forces by a proposed 600,000 men, slashing nuclear arsenals and forcing Russia to live within its means, as well as the pragmatism in foreign policy that has stepped back from expensive confrontation in areas such as the Balkans.

But there is one influential class that is far from happy. The liberal intelligentsia is appalled by what it sneeringly calls the triumph of the old KGB. It is alarmed at attempts to control the press, censor criticism and restore the President and his Government to the untouchable positions they enjoyed under communism. The liberals care passionately about human rights, religious freedom, police accountability and local liberties — and see them all being curtailed in the name of order.

Many oppose the war in Chechnya and believe that both the Duma and the public have now been cowed into accepting the government version of the conflict. The liberals’ anguish has focused on the row over press freedom. Mr Putin, they say, will never overcome his KGB background, his dislike of criticism or his obsession with what television says of him. Indeed, he rarely begins any meeting on the hour, to leave himself time to watch the television news.

Culture, too, is feeling again the pressure for conformity. Archives are closing, the experimental in art is being discouraged, the new Minister of Culture is recolonising the State’s old cultural territory.

The liberals have a loud voice. Anglophone, sophisticated, well-travelled and well-connected, they are the people who most influence overseas opinion and who fear or sneer at the Putin ascendancy.

But an hour from Moscow, few people care about what the press can say. They want meat to be available, schools to have the roofs fixed, pensions to be paid, petty local tyrants to be tamed and the established order of life to be restored.

This is what Mr Putin appears to offer many, what gives him confidence to outline to Mr Blair all the other priorities he must tackle simultaneously. The polls are on his side, and, so far, so is time.

[Jimmi]

Hi Woland. Could you describe the situation between Putin and Blair. What´s going on over there? COuld you give´me a short briefing?!!
I´ve heard that Putin and BLair has met, but I havent heard why.....Is it good or bad?

Still offensive and stupid?

[Dr_Woland]

It seems to be mostly a "friendly" visit. It's known that they discussed the planned American "Son Of Star Wars" technology, but unclear exactly WHY, since this is nothing to do with Britain. It's been suggested that Blair - who has the best relationship with Putin of all EEC-country leaders, they are meeting for 5th time already - was maybe unofficially speaking on behalf of European countries, to see what planned Russian response will be?

Otherwise the visit seemed to be mostly photo-calls - the usual things politicians do, like kissing babies, drinking beer together to show how friendly they are etc. Also, they went to a ballet performance - to mark the 75th birthday of the Russian legendary ballerina Plesetskaya. Interestingly (ballet scandal-stories) the first artist to dance after Putin's speech of welcome, was Alexei Ratmansky - who had been told "you'll never dance again at the Bolshoi!" by the previous (now-sacked) management. So at least Putin's done one good thing, and restored the reputation of Russia's most talented choreographer, who is currently.... principal soloist with the Royal Danish Ballet in Copenhagen :-)

Dr W.
(thought that might interest you :-)