CIA predicts break-up of Russia in 10 years

[Rain]

The Independent

CIA angers Russia by predicting break-up of state within 10 years

By Andrew Osborn in Moscow

30 April 2004

Russia's political elite has been stung by a recently declassified CIA
report that suggests the world's largest country could fall apart at the
seams in a decade and split into as many as eight different states.

The report, Global Trends 2015, has sparked a lively debate in Russia
about the country's territorial integrity and triggered passionate
denunciations from some of Russia's leading politicians. Its
unflinchingly bleak assessment of Russia's prospects has angered many at
a time when the Russian government is doing its best to talk up the economy.

The fact that the gloomy prognosis comes from its old Cold War enemy
makes it all the harder for Russia to swallow. But many ordinary
Russians seem to share the CIA's pessimism.

An opinion poll conducted by radio station Ekho Moskvy earlier this week
revealed that 71 per cent of those surveyed (3,380 people) thought that
the disintegration of the motherland was a "real threat".

Yesterday's Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper printed a map for its readers
showing how Russia might look by 2015 if the CIA is right. It showed
Siberia broken up into four different countries, with western Russia
similarly partitioned.

It is not for nothing that president Vladimir Putin's party is called
United Russia. According to the CIA, some of Russia's eastern regions
are so rich in natural resources such as oil and gas that they will opt
to break away from Moscow, which they have long accused of poor governance.

Komsomolskaya Pravda was dismissive of the report. "Either the CIA has
super perspicacious analysts who can see what mortal Russians, including
politicians and political scientists, cannot, or someone has got it
wrong," it said.

Boris Gryzlov, the speaker of the Russian parliament, said: "I
completely reject the possibility of Russia breaking up.

"Over the past four years, a lot has been done to strengthen vertical
power and legislation in the constituent parts of the Russian Federation
was brought into line with the constitution a long time ago."

According to the CIA report, a falling birth rate meant that the
country's population was likely to decline to 130 million by 2015 from
146 million today. It also painted a picture of Russia as a terminally
ill patient.

"The Soviet economic inheritance will continue to plague Russia," the
report said. "Besides a crumbling physical infrastructure, years of
environmental neglect are taking a toll on the population, a toll made
worse by such societal costs of transition as alcoholism, cardiac
diseases, drugs and a worsening health delivery system. Russia's
population is not only getting smaller, but it is becoming less and less
healthy and less able to serve as an engine of economic recover."

Dmitry Orlov, the director of Russia's political and economic
communications agency, claimed the CIA had an ulterior motive. "The
conservative wing of the American Republican party is interested in the
maximum weakening of Russia's position and maybe even in its
fragmentation," Mr Orlov told the Izvestia newspaper


© 2004 Independent Digital (UK) Ltd
------------------------------------------------------------------------

The following is an excerpt from the CIA website of the part of the
report dealing with Russia. It's gloomy indeed, but "dissolution" is
only mentioned as a possibility. IMO, either the Independent story is a
canard, or the CIA didn't want to declassify the really dangerous stuff
and published only a "sanitized" version. Someone might then have leaked
the complete story. N.S.

"Russia and Eurasia

Regional Trends.

Uncertainties abound about the future internal configuration,
geopolitical dynamics, and degree of turbulence within and among former
Soviet states. Russia and the other states of Eurasia are likely to fall
short in resolving critical impediments to economic and political reform
in their struggle to manage the negative legacies of the Soviet period.
Changing demographics, chronic economic difficulties, and continued
questions about governance will constrain Russia's ability to project
its power beyond the former Soviet republics to the south, complicate
Ukraine's efforts to draw closer to the West, and retard the development
of stable, open political structures throughout the Caucasus and Central
Asia. Those states that could make progress on the basis of potential
energy revenues are likely to fail because of corruption and the absence
of structural economic reform. The rapid pace of scientific and
technological innovation, as well as globalization, will leave these
states further behind the West as well as behind the major emerging markets.

The economic challenges to these countries will remain daunting:
insufficient structural reform, poor productivity in agriculture as
compared with Western standards, decaying infrastructure and
environmental degradation. Corruption and organized crime, sustained by
drug trafficking, money laundering, and other illegal enterprises and,
in several instances, protected by corrupt political allies, will persist.

Demographic pressures also will affect the economic performance and
political cohesiveness of these states. Because of low birthrates and
falling life expectancy among males, the populations of the Slavic core
and much of the Caucasus will continue to decline; Russian experts
predict that the country's population could fall from 146 million at
present to 130-135 million by 2015. At the other end of the spectrum,
the Central Asian countries will face a growing youth cohort that will
peak around 2010 before resuming a more gradual pattern of population
growth.

The centrality of Russia will continue to diminish, and by 2015
"Eurasia" will be a geographic term lacking a unifying political,
economic, and cultural reality. Russia and the western Eurasian States
will continue to orient themselves toward Europe but will remain
essentially outside of it. Because of geographic proximity and cultural
affinities, the Caucasus will be closer politically to their neighbors
to the south and west, with Central Asia drawing closer to South Asia
and China. Nonetheless, important interdependencies will remain,
primarily in the energy sphere.

Russia will remain the most important actor in the former Soviet Union.
Its power relative to others in the region and neighboring areas will
have declined, however, and it will continue to lack the resources to
impose its will.

The Soviet economic inheritance will continue to plague Russia. Besides
a crumbling physical infrastructure, years of environmental neglect are
taking a toll on the population, a toll made worse by such societal
costs of transition as alcoholism, cardiac diseases, drugs, and a
worsening health delivery system. Russia's population is not only
getting smaller, but it is becoming less and less healthy and thus less
able to serve as an engine of economic recovery. In macro economic terms
Russia's GDP probably has bottomed out. Russia, nevertheless, is still
likely to fall short in its efforts to become fully integrated into the
global financial and trading system by 2015. Even under a best case
scenario of five percent annual economic growth, Russia would attain an
economy less than one-fifth the size of that of the United States.

Many Russian futures are possible, ranging from political resurgence to
dissolution. The general drift, however, is toward authoritarianism,
although not to the extreme extent of the Soviet period. The factors
favoring this course are President Putin's own bent toward hierarchical
rule from Moscow; the population's general support of this course as an
antidote to the messiness and societal disruption of the post-Soviet
transition; the ability of the ruling elite to hold on to power because
of the lack of effective national opposition, thus making that elite
accountable only to itself; and the ongoing shift of tax resources from
the regions to the center. This centralizing tendency will contribute to
dysfunctional governance. Effective governance is nearly impossible
under such centralization for a country as large and diverse as Russia
and lacking well-ordered, disciplined national bureaucracies.
Recentralization, however, will be constrained by the interconnectedness
brought about by the global information revolution, and by the gradual,
although uneven, growth of civil society.

Russia will focus its foreign policy goals on reestablishing lost
influence in the former Soviet republics to the south, fostering ties to
Europe and Asia, and presenting itself as a significant player vis-a-vis
the United States. Its energy resources will be an important lever for
these endeavors. However, its domestic ills will frustrate its efforts
to reclaim its great power status. Russia will maintain the second
largest nuclear arsenal in the world as the last vestige of its old
status. The net outcome of these trends will be a Russia that remains
internally weak and institutionally linked to the international system
primarily through its permanent seat on the UN Security Council."

[dj_who_kid]

Rain, whoever wrote the article cannot read. Or if they can read they obviously don't understand English or CIA intelligence briefs. Besides the copy and paste job on some of the quotes from the study, this guy is so far off that your own thread title of "CIA predicts break-up of Russia in 10 years" is idiotic.

What the paper acutally said was that Russian influence will decline in Central Asia mostly because of a ressurgent China and India(which I warned about). There was never a mention of a predicted "disintegration" of the Federation(only the phrase "by 2015 "Eurasia" will be a geographic term lacking a unifying political, economic, and cultural reality"). The closest thing the analysts said about disintegration was a hypothetical and BROAD range of things that MIGHT happen, NOT things that WILL happen. The phrase "Many Russian futures are possible, ranging from political resurgence to dissolution" is a tell tale sign of this. What the paper said was accurate to a certain extent, mostly about the social ills that will plague Russia and the declining birth rate, along with the legacy of the corruption, waste and incompetence brought on by the SOVIET system(thats for all you commies out there). What was actually predicted was a "centralization" effort on part of the Russian government, which will be hindered by lack of infrastructure, and a continued political role in your neck of the woods Rain(so get ready, we're going to be there for a LONG time).

This further proves my point that your propoganda machine is biased and serves no purpose but to release anti-Russian propoganda. Try not to take article you find on the Net too seriously, since they seem to be your only source of information.

For anyone who's interested you can find the above mentioned paper at: http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/globaltrends2015/

As a side comment, the paper was written in 2000!!!!!! At this time, CIA analysts, plauged by years of downsizing and mistreatment at the hands of the LIBERAL Clinton presidency, were influenced more with the economic collapse of 1998 in Russia than anything else. This paper is heavily biased because of this and has no bearing in real life, besides the commentary put forth on the social ills and lack of economic diversification. The one great thing it does convey is the fact that Russia's future lays in the hands of its government, thus a better government will yield a better Russia. Currently, Mr.Putin is on his way to accomplishing some good things.

One last thing, the date on this says December 2000, which means prior to 9/11. Hahahahhaha. Rain, guess what this same analysis might say now? Come on now, I'll give you one guess:



That's right Rain: "Muslims are the enemy".



Now, since I've debunked Rain, time to go drinking.

[Rain]

I will warn against insulting moderators, whether you encode it in russian or any other language. Mmmkay?

The online report was edited after Kremlin started whining about it. They cut out all the juicy parts. ( You read the leftovers, buddy ) Nevertheless, four years down the road and the authoritarianism part is already here. Right on schedule.

Second warning, remarks about religions being enemies arent nice either. Please behave.

R

[dj_who_kid]

I don't know you and you don't know me, so lets cut the bs.

What you just wrote is another lie. This is the original draft, as released by the authority of George Tenet along with references from the NSA. If you can post a different draft, then I'll eat my words else I would appreciate if you would stop posting false information, which I assure you, this really is. It's highly unbecoming of an "impartial" moderator.

I'll give you one thing, there is a section titled "Pernicious Globalization", which is one of 4 scenarios this report talks about, that mentions a possible internal fragmentation in China and Russia IF there is a weakining of governing capacity. This, however, does not predict a dinstegration as you and your Muslim author talk about since this hinges on the contingency that one of these governments will face a massive power struggle/challenge to its authority base. Of course, this in itself goes counter to what most of the report says, which includes the belief that China will continue its ascent into the Asian power vacum. So, I hope you understand how I see this as only a fictional account, reminding me of a good Tom Clancy book. Ok?

Also, don't threaten me and we'll get along just fine. Instead of jumping down peoples throats who don't agree with your malicious attempts to misinform the general reader, how about you engage in non-partisan dialouge. My bringing up of the lack of scrutiny put on MUSLIM extremists is not a fluke, nor was it intended to make you nor any other Muslim cry. It was a commentary on the LACK of accurate analysis that the CIA was performing in 2000. If you can't understand this, then maybe you should stop reading my posts. For example, even you can admit that this report was written in a time where the USA did not see the Islamo-fascist tide as a real security threat. The analysis is therefore outdated and biased against Russia(because it was influenced by the events of 1997-1999). Furthermore, your crying about "authoritarian" Russia is one more lie. IF you actually read the report, which I know you haven't, you would see that the CIA predicts an attempt by Moscow to centralize but NOT in the manner of the authoritarian Soviet model.

Lastly, maybe you see this as a positive, but if you close your eyes and think really really really hard, maybe you can understand that a weak Russia spells doom for your entire people, not to mention the stability of the Central Asian region. It saddens me that people like you glorify what is in this report. I imagined you had more sense than this, apparently I was horribly mistaken. My apologies.

[Rain]

[quote]Originally posted by dj_who_kid


What you just wrote is another lie. This is the original draft, as released by the authority of George Tenet along with references from the NSA. If you can post a different draft, then I'll eat my words else I would appreciate if you would stop posting false information, which I assure you, this really is. It's highly unbecoming of an "impartial" moderator.

The link to the draft you posted contains nothing about Siberia's oil resources and the possibility of it breaking up from Russia. This was the reason for the Russian outcry, and this is whats been deleted out of the draft that you give a link to. If you subscribe to basic logic, then if the current version of the online report contains nothing substantiative, then there couldnt have had been an outcry, correct? Thank you, next question please.

So, I hope you understand how I see this as only a fictional account, reminding me of a good Tom Clancy book. Ok?

Well. Its your opinion.

Though in my opinion its not a fictional account, by any means. Its based on very real issues that are happening in Russia.

Also, don't threaten me and we'll get along just fine.

Threatening is way too personal. You are a member that displayed unprovoked offense, and its my job to warn you that insults arent tolerated. "Hren" is a pejorative term unless we are talking about kitchen recipes. "Muslims are the enemy" ( note : not Al-Qaeda, or etc ) is an all-encompassing propagandistic term that projects blame or singles out a particular religious group. Its like saying "Christians are the enemy" or "Jews are the enemy".

Instead of jumping down peoples throats who don't agree with your malicious attempts to misinform the general reader, how about you engage in non-partisan dialouge.

I warned you because you cant lead a civil conversation, not for your opinion. That would've been too much credit, buddy.

My bringing up of the lack of scrutiny put on MUSLIM extremists is not a fluke, nor was it intended to make you nor any other Muslim cry.

I dont see why I need to put scrutiny on subjects not related to Russia's internal problems, which is the topic here.

It was a commentary on the LACK of accurate analysis that the CIA was performing in 2000.

No. It was an article from Independent dated April 30 2004 about the leaked version of the original report that contained content that outraged Russian officials because it predicted a breakup. Do you have problems with English? Should I advice you to re-read the first post, and also to pay attention to the quotation mark that appears in the last sentence?

If you can't understand this, then maybe you should stop reading my posts.

I'll stop right here.

R

[Kalinin]

Break up of the Russian Federation, huh? Hmm....I wonder where the thousand or so people living in the Asian part of Russia would go...I'm sure they're pissed at the government, living their pastoral lives and all. This article is so idiotic it doesn't even merit discussion. The only break up Russia would suffer would come from foreign pressure, ie. from China.

[Admiral_Kolchak]

If Russia did not break up in 1993 and 1998, it sure as hell not gonna break-up now or in the foreseable future.

CIA is a bunch of dilettantes caught by surprise when Soviet Union collapsed and now trying to compensate by paranoid predictions.

Everyone who is familiar with Russia and have lived there recently and in the 1990s, knows what Russia is recovering rather rapidly , and not heading for another turmoil.

If anyone would break-up in the future it would be former Soviet states like Georgia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan with some of its territories may be joining Russia.
Of course even more likely scenario is what these states wouldn't break-up but nonetheless gradually fall under ever increasing Russian influence.