Bala + Alex

[NTC]

http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/04/...orecasts.shtml

I only read about the speech (but I'm hoping at least one of you watched it), so can you guys give me a non-Western recap of what you believe is going on and whether there's a shift in policy in the works?

Thanks.

[Alex_Ivanov]

Certain circles are interested in some sort of orange revolution in Russia in 2008. What we see today is begining of massive campagn in western media which goal is to prepare ground for it. This campaign one more time convinces me that Putin goes in right direction, if his "regime" gets so much criticism at the West, while rotten Eltsin regime was generally apreciated there.

Back to his speech. You know, every sentence can be easily interpreted in a number of ways. Everyone hears what he wants to hear. Thus, those who sleep and dream about Putin's fall, hear echo of future revolution.

P.S. But it would be wrong to say that there's no threat of revolution. This threat is real. One more pro-west Eltsin at power and Russia is over, we know it well, our enemies know it well. Fight is coming. It's time for everyone to choose his side. Even if Putin isn't the best choice, I would rather support him than Mikhail "russian Yuschenko" Kasyanov, possible western puppet in their fight for Russia.

[NTC]

Lets not kid ourselves and think Kasyanov is equivalent to Yushchenko. The latter actually had a large enough backing to successfully pull off the coup.

I think Putin realizes that his cronyism has probably backfired on him. The bureaucrats he put into power throughout Russia might have been loyal to him, but they were detrimental to Russia's eventual recovery. Try as people might to justify government control over certain sectors of the economy, the fact remains that the people heading up any government institution, be it in the US or Russia, are complete and utter dimwits. There must be some universal law that says "if you serve the public, you must be an idiot". What scares me now is that if he truly wishes to push much needed reforms (especially in the law codes, government programs), he might run into the same former "allies" who think otherwise and will try to keep their "bread and butter" positions intact....much like what happened (in reverse) to the insiders of Yeltsin's days.

Russian government stock ownership of certain businesses was an easy thing to predict. This was done to counter the influence of foreign companies and increase federal revenues. Problem is, this isn't the path to economic stability. A key aspect of this type of stability lays with the development of small and medium sized businesses, the true backbone of capitalism. But the development of small to medium sized businesses just doesn't happen out of thin air, it usually takes seed money. Where does seed money come from? From venture capitalists. Where are venture capitalists most often found? In the West. The cycle is obvious. After the current string of federal acquisitions (legal and illegal) is over, I think he should be happy with the security he bought Russia's main industries but also be forward thinking in his future economic plans. Russia can't do this on its own, and there is plenty of capital floating around the West that's currently going into China and India. Russians need to understand that this trend is also counterproductive for them, and will eventually wind up isolating the nation more than any kind of NATO encroachment.

Just my two cents.

[Voyager13b]

Originally posted by NTC
Lets not kid ourselves and think Kasyanov is equivalent to Yushchenko. The latter actually had a large enough backing to successfully pull off the coup.

I think Putin realizes that his cronyism has probably backfired on him. The bureaucrats he put into power throughout Russia might have been loyal to him, but they were detrimental to Russia's eventual recovery. Try as people might to justify government control over certain sectors of the economy, the fact remains that the people heading up any government institution, be it in the US or Russia, are complete and utter dimwits. There must be some universal law that says "if you serve the public, you must be an idiot". What scares me now is that if he truly wishes to push much needed reforms (especially in the law codes, government programs), he might run into the same former "allies" who think otherwise and will try to keep their "bread and butter" positions intact....much like what happened (in reverse) to the insiders of Yeltsin's days.

Russian government stock ownership of certain businesses was an easy thing to predict. This was done to counter the influence of foreign companies and increase federal revenues. Problem is, this isn't the path to economic stability. A key aspect of this type of stability lays with the development of small and medium sized businesses, the true backbone of capitalism. But the development of small to medium sized businesses just doesn't happen out of thin air, it usually takes seed money. Where does seed money come from? From venture capitalists. Where are venture capitalists most often found? In the West. The cycle is obvious. After the current string of federal acquisitions (legal and illegal) is over, I think he should be happy with the security he bought Russia's main industries but also be forward thinking in his future economic plans. Russia can't do this on its own, and there is plenty of capital floating around the West that's currently going into China and India. Russians need to understand that this trend is also counterproductive for them, and will eventually wind up isolating the nation more than any kind of NATO encroachment.

Just my two cents.

That was much better than two cents worth. I think you hit a number of important nails right on the head. Well said.



For Alex..., I don't hear any talk of wishing for revolution in Russia over here in the states. Are some people concerned about the path Putin has chosen? You bet they are. Some people in Europe are concerned about the path George Bush has chosen as well, but just because they can speak their mind openly, doesn't mean that a revolution is afoot. I admire many things about Putin, and I think he is dead wrong on other issues. Still, I don't think "deposing" Putin is a good plan for Russia. Russia needs evolution, and not a second collapse. Open exchange of ideas, both good and bad, along with a strong and independent supreme court that only concernes itself with the constitution of Russia, and not the will of the president would go a long way toward making Russia a secure place to both live and invest. People simply cannot make an informed decision about their future if they are "protected" from seeing and hearing views that are counter to those of the establishment. Putin thrives on personal control, rather than the rule of law. That worries me, even though I know that Putin has the best of intentions for Russia at heart. Even a benevolent dictator is still a dictator, and can cause major damage before he falls from grace within his community.

Voyager

[NTC]

Yeah Voy, maybe Alex is talking about those hidden "dark circles" that want to bring about the NWO...isn't that what the conspiracy guys are going on about?

Seriously, if I were an American policy maker (I wish), I'd understand that a destabilizing blow to Russia would create the next big "world" war. Splintering the country is the last thing Eurasia needs...maybe China wants that, but the rest of the region would suffer from the conflicts that would arise from such a scenario.

Remember Alex, Americans already believe they "won" the Cold War, so why the move?

As I said, the encirclement Russia fears is almost nothing when compared to economic isolation. Russia can't rely on nations like China and India to help it grow. Those two already get spoon fed by Uncle Sam with everything from capital investment to technology. Nothing in China could have been possible without western banking and industry, not to mention the US turning a blind eye to the pirate culture the Chinese have. Indians aren't that much different.

[scandinavian]

NTC..

Russia is not going to become isolated from Europe economically. How is that supposed to happen? The socialists are losing this place. They are having their asses kicked.

And it wouldn't be much of a blow to them if they lost the US as a trade partner, as it is not even among the top 5 trade partners.

Wishful thinking NTC..

Russian exports..
Germany 8.4%, Italy 6.2%, China 5.8%, Ukraine 5.7%, Belarus 5.7%, Netherlands 5.6%, Switzerland 5%, US 4.6% (2003)

Imports..
Germany 15.4%, Belarus 7.7%, China 7.4%, Ukraine 6.6%, Italy 4.9%, US 4.6%, France 4.5%, Kazakhstan 4.1%, Finland 4.1% (2003)

[scandinavian]

Russia preparing for the coming information war..

http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/04/...internet.shtml