The arming of Russia economy

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If everything is going as planned, massive rearmament will begin in 2007-2010. Putin is convinced that the military-industrial complex is the "engine of growth." It looks like the country's present leaders follow the school of economic thought that says that mass arms production leads to increased solvent demand (this assumes that workers in the military-industrial complex will be paid regularly). This demand, the theory goes, will become that very driving force behind an economic boom. As an example, followers of this school like to cite how arms production in the 1940s dragged the United States out of depression.


There were two rearmament programs in the 1990s. They failed. However, recent economy growth has made the new planned rearmament possible. Taking 1991 as a starting point, by 1998, the year of the Great Default, Russia's gross domestic product declined about 40% (about 60% of 1991 level). The economy grew 6.4% in 1999, 10.0% in 2000, 5.0% in 2001, 4.3% 2002, and 6% 2003 (forecast). Five years of positive growth have restored GDP to about 82% of its 1991 level. Russia economy will reach 1991 level by the end of 2007 if the annual rate of growth be maintained at 6-7%.

With the massive rearmament and economy reform, the Russia economy is expected to experience 8% growth by 2007-2009 and to 10% by 2010. Russia GDP is predicted to be double by 2010(Compare to 2001) if the GDP growth be maintained at the rate of 8%. Russia is weak now, but it would be wrong to think that it will always be so. Historically, the country has repeatedly demonstrated remarkable recuperative powers, hauling itself up by its own bootstraps. Notably, in defiance of western expectations, it recovered within little more than a decade from military defeat, revolution and civil war in the period 1915-24 and then again from German invasion in 1941-42, going on to conquer eastern Europe.

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MOSCOW - Russia's armed forces have obtained information that the United States and its allies have already decided to launch military action in Iraq from mid-February, news agency Interfax said on Wednesday.

The agency's specialist military news wire AVN, quoting an unnamed high-ranking source in the Russian general staff, said U.S.-led operations would be launched once an attacking force of 150,000 had been assembled in the Gulf.

"According to the information we have, the operation is planned for the second half of February. The decision to launch it has been taken but not yet been made public," the source told the agency, which has generally authoritative contacts in the Russian military and political establishment.

The source added that the main aim of the war would be to secure control of Iraqi oilfields.

It was not indicated by what means the Russian military had obtained such information -- it was not clear if it had been acquired covertly by Russian intelligence services or by a direct tip-off from Washington, which would be keen to avoid any misunderstandings with Moscow if it does launch a war.

The United States says it is building up a force estimated to reach more than 150,000 by the end of next month. Britain is sending a further 30,000 troops. No other allies have come forward with significant military commitments so far and some, notably France, Germany and Russia are against rapid action.

"The military operation against Iraq will be conducted by a combination of means -- strikes will be from the air, land and sea. The war will be short, lasting about one month," the Russian source was quoted as saying.

The source added that the main aim of the operation was not so much to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein but to secure U.S. control over Iraqi oilfields.

"Hussein is the pretext. The real aim of the military action is control over Iraqi oil," he said.

Russia, together with France which is also a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, are cautioning against U.S action in Iraq now while U.N. arms inspectors are continuing to search for evidence of weapons of mass destruction there.

Russia has a major commercial interest in Iraqi oil and has made clear its eagerness to exploit Iraq's huge reserves once U.N. sanctions on Saddam are lifted.

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Russia's army rumbled with discontent Wednesday over US President George W. Bush's go-it-alone approach to nuclear disarmament, seen here as undercutting Moscow's leverage in future negotiations over missile defense.
Frowns surfaced in Russia's defense ministry building after President Vladimir Putin was unable Tuesday to get Bush to sign up to a bilateral long-range nuclear arms reduction agreement during their Washington talks.

As promised in advance, Bush announced a missiles cut to a range of 1,700-2,000 warheads from Washington's current arsenal of nearly 7,000 over the next 10 years. But he did so without reaching prior agreement with Putin.

Bush stressed that he was not in favor of "endless hours of arms control discussions ... I looked the man in the eye and shook his hand. But if we need to write it down on a piece of paper, I'll be glad to do it."

The announcement meant that Putin had to play catchup later in the day by saying that Russia would also make cuts from 6,000 to 2,000 warheads or less.

But he gave no timeframe for Moscow's cutbacks while stressing that discussion over "offensive and defensive" weapons would continue when the two leaders retreat to Bush's Texas ranch Wednesday.

Bush's firm unilateral approach puts in flux the status of previous disarmament agreements between Moscow and Washington -- which have been recognized under international law -- and Russia's future bargaining position in strategic affairs.

The cut lays to waste Russia's repeated efforts to cast the United States as a military aggressor which is trying to "militarize space" by developing a futuristic missile defense program that may one day have attack capabilities.

It also leaves Moscow in the unenviable position of grumbling over a US decision to eliminate a large chunk of some of the deadliest weapons on earth.

Representing the military hawks, one top Russia defense ministry general flatly called Bush's announcement "wrong."

General Valentin Kuznetsov, who heads the defense ministry's international cooperation division, argued that only bilateral agreements could guarantee full control over non-proliferation and disarmament issues.

"Russia and the United States have gained great expertise in the area of verification and control over nuclear cuts, and it would be wrong to abandon" this process, RIA Novosti quoted Kuznetsov as saying.

"The whole world should benefit from this," noted General Varfolomei Korobushin, the deputy head of Russia's Academy of Military Science.

"But the cuts must be made in a manner that does not leave the United States with an advantage" on the strategic defense front, Korobushin told ORT television.

The announcements by Bush and Putin both go below the levels of the START II nuclear arms reduction treaty signed by Moscow and Washington in 1993.

They mark the first time in the nuclear era that a military power had volunteered such radical cuts on its own -- and leaves in doubt the validity of a host of other agreements to which Moscow has clung to for leverage in negotiating international affairs.

And most importantly, the announcement adds fuel to US threats that it could unilaterally withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty and start developing a missile shield even if no compromise agreement with Moscow on the issue is reached.

Bush and Putin signed a joint declaration Tuesday stating only that "on strategic defenses and the ABM treaty, we have agreed, in light of the changing global security environment, to continue consultations within the broad framework of the new strategic relationship."

Russia fears the defense shield in part because it threatens to render its quickly-ageing nuclear arsenal useless over the next few decades.

But some Russian lawmakers expressed little surprise that Russia appears to have given up so much ground on the strategic defense front so quickly.

"After all, our military doctrine calls for the reinforcement of ground troops" who can fight local rather than global conflicts, noted liberal Union of Rightist Force parliament faction leader Boris Nemtsov.

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Russia's military-industrial complex has a mighty research potential. Some developments by Russian researchers and designers engaged in this sphere are wholly unique and run ahead of foreign by ten to 15 years, said Alexander Dondukov of the defense and security committee of the Federation Council (the upper chamber of Russian parliament).

He said that many of these developments are between 90 and 95 percent ready. They only have to be brought to the final-product stage and put up on show at such exhibitions as the Russian Expo Arms, which opened on Thursday for the first time in Nizhny Tagil in the Ural region, said the senator.

The Nizhny Tagil show "has no competitors in the world today", he is sure. It only has to be converted into a permanent fair and then it will "occupy the leading position in the world", he believes.

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The Russians are moving nearer to the military victory they want in Chechnya. But first they have to take Grozny.


The military wants to avoid repeating the mistakes of 1994-5 in which tanks and conscripts were sent into the city on New Year's Eve, only to be slaughtered by Chechen fighters.

The warning to the civilians of Grozny to leave was clearly intended as a prelude to a massive air bombardment in which the city, already half in ruins from the last war, would be utterly destroyed before being captured.



Tactics of heavy bombings

There has been speculation that the Russians would use so-called fuel-air bombs which can kill anyone sheltering in cellars.
The main constraint on the generals here is a political one. If they begin a ferocious attack on Grozny, while there are still old and sick people still there, there will be a furious reaction from the international community.

Some Russian opposition politicians may also be critical, such as the mayor of Moscow Yury Luzhkov. He says that he was worried that Russia was waging a war against the Chechen people, which it would lose.

But the military calculation is not so simple either. Even if the city is levelled, a few hardened fighters may hold out in the urban wasteland of Grozny and could still inflict heavy casualties on incoming Russian soldiers.


Click here to see a map of the region

After Grozny, the next phase of the campaign will be in the hills and mountains where most of the Chechen fighters have retreated.

The fighters will find it difficult to spend the winter in the mountains, with little protective tree cover over their heads. But it will also be perilous for the Russians to advance amidst fog and mist into the winding valleys of the Caucasus.



Will the Russian flag fly over Grozny?

The key factor here will be how much support the guerrillas will get from the local population and how many casualties the Russian army is prepared to endure.
So far both sides have avoided major battles and the Chechens have retreated from most of their strongholds without heavy casualties.

What could turn this campaign into a long partisan war is the mobility of the Chechen fighters, especially at night, when they are able to move with ease even in areas densely packed with Russian soldiers.

Judging by last time, most Russian conscripts prefer not to risk their lives by picking a fight in the darkness with the fighters.

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MOSCOW (AP) - President Vladimir Putin on Thursday reaffirmed his pledge to gradually transform the underfunded Russian military from a conscript to an all-volunteer force but said it was not clear how long the reform would take.

``The transfer to a professional army, along with a reduction of the length of conscript service, is a clear priority,'' Putin said in his state of the nation address. But, he added, ``the reduction of conscript service cannot be accomplished in one year.''

Putin has ordered the military to trim its ranks and draw up a plan for phasing out the draft, but top military officials want to preserve the bulky Soviet-era military structure and have been slow to work out specific guidelines.

Col.-Gen. Vladislav Putilin, the Defense Ministry's top mobilization official, said Thursday the military must switch Russia's air force, air defense, navy, missile forces, special forces and permanent readiness units of the ground forces to full volunteer staffing by 2010.

The transition will cost $5.7 billion with the minimum monthly wage of a contract soldier $177, Putilin said, according to the Interfax-Military News Agency.

Putilin said the military must speed up the transfer to a professional army because the nation's poor demographic and health situation will cause the number of conscripts to drop by half after 2005.

Putin said in his Kremlin speech Thursday that the military would make some units fully professional this year as a pilot project.